Scotland: The Humza Yousaf Year & a bit

Inevitable. I don't think anyone genuinely thought this was going to go any other way.

But, in the long term, potentially a very bad move. The Scottish Parliament has, essentially, now been proven toothless. This could play right into the hands of the independence movement. Salmond and his cronies would do well not to crow and play the issue rather than their favourite nasty prejudice. But they won't. Because they're too stupid and egotistical.
 
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Scotland STUNS in new taxband



I wouldn't be too surprised if similar happens in England once Labour are in power tbh.
 
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Bute House Agreement DEAD...tired



The Scottish Government scrapped it's interim climate targets (which were always unrealistic and had no evidence underpinning them) and the Greens membership were due to vote whether to stay in power sharing. The vote could really have gone either way, so it looks like Yousaf might kill it before it's taken out his hands.

A large section of the SNP membership, particularly the Forbes wing, have been itching to ditch the Greens too. So we'll be back to minority government once again.
 
Excellent. Great to see some actual principles in politics. Remember when the Lib Dems sold their manifesto down the river in 2010? The Greens have refused to do that. Proper.
 
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This feels like another self-inflicted wound by the SNP government. It they’d stop making significant policy announcements with no real details or plans behind them, things like this wouldn’t happen The leadership repeatedly trumpted their “world leading” targets but had little in place to achieve them.

I’ve lost count of the number of times they’ve had to delay or backtrack further down the line. It makes them look incompetent, and now incredibly weaker as they won’t have the Greens on side to get their legislation through.
 


:ClaudiaPopcorn: :ClaudiaPopcorn:

There is a vote of no confidence coming and I'm very curious how it will play out.
 
I had planned to vote SNP again in the general election for a while. Given that it's a straight Labour/SNP fight in my constituency, I may still do so but it does feel like the SNP are at risk of sliding back to the centre right, like they were in the 70s and 80s.
 
I'll be Greens if they stand a candidate, and possibly spoiled ballot if they don't. As much as I want Labour's majority to be as slim as possible, the SNP can't be rewarded for how they've been acting as a whole post-sturgeon, even if there are individuals within it I quite like (Yousaf still, just about, being one of them)
 
ZenGiraffe said:
Bute House Agreement DEAD...tired



The Scottish Government scrapped it's interim climate targets (which were always unrealistic and had no evidence underpinning them) and the Greens membership were due to vote whether to stay in power sharing. The vote could really have gone either way, so it looks like Yousaf might kill it before it's taken out his hands.

A large section of the SNP membership, particularly the Forbes wing, have been itching to ditch the Greens too. So we'll be back to minority government once again.
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Here for the liberation of the Republic of Scottiah
 
ZenGiraffe said:
I'll be Greens if they stand a candidate, and possibly spoiled ballot if they don't. As much as I want Labour's majority to be as slim as possible, the SNP can't be rewarded for how they've been acting as a whole post-sturgeon, even if there are individuals within it I quite like (Yousaf still, just about, being one of them)
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I feel like that too and it may be the only way to indicate that this desperation of everyone in mainstream politics to appease the worst people in the country has reached its endgame.
 




Yousaf really looking like he's fucked it. His only hope is the Green's abstaining, but what is he going to offer for that to happen?
 
ZenGiraffe said:
Yousaf really looking like he's fucked it. His only hope is the Green's abstaining, but what is he going to offer for that to happen?
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As I said earlier, another self-inflicted wound!

For a senior politician, I don’t think he’s that good at politics. The Michael Matheson iPad affair left him looking like he had extremely poor judgement, and this is another case in point.
 
Technically, he doesn't need to resign even if he loses the vote either.

Also, this could all hinge on ASH REGAN. If she votes with the government, it will be a 64/64 tie and the presiding officer breaks in favour of the government.
 
If I was Regan, I'd tank Yousaf then support the inevitable Forbes nomination. She might even return to the SNP from Alba under Forbes.

And then the SNP get hammered at their next election.
 
What is the polling like in Scotland? Is there a chance the SNP could be uprooted from government?
 
GinAg (39) said:
What is the polling like in Scotland? Is there a chance the SNP could be uprooted from government?
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If there was a holyrood election tomorrow, SNP would likely be the biggest party, but I doubt would be able to find a pathway to government. Labour would probably become the government with some form of support from the other unionist parties.

But it's been getting closer and closer between SNP and Labour as time has gone on
 
The other thing I am not clear on. The Presiding Officer votes with the status quo. So in a confidence vote, would vote to keep the incumbent first minister.

However, if Yousaf loses it, the next first minister needs to win a simple majority vote to become appointed. If Forbes convinces Regan to back her, we're back at 64/64. What is the presiding officer meant to do in that position? There isn't a convention to follow. It's never happened before, and Westminster don't confirm their ministers so there isn't any precedent from there to borrow from either
 
This aged well. :side-eye:

GMBd-9MXsAAoqEp
 
ZenGiraffe said:
The other thing I am not clear on. The Presiding Officer votes with the status quo. So in a confidence vote, would vote to keep the incumbent first minister.

However, if Yousaf loses it, the next first minister needs to win a simple majority vote to become appointed. If Forbes convinces Regan to back her, we're back at 64/64. What is the presiding officer meant to do in that position? There isn't a convention to follow. It's never happened before, and Westminster don't confirm their ministers so there isn't any precedent from there to borrow from either
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I guess eventually either someone will abstain after receiving a big enough bribe, probably the Lim Dems, or they’ll have to call an election.
 
dmlaw said:
I guess eventually either someone will abstain after receiving a big enough bribe, probably the Lim Dems, or they’ll have to call an election.
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An election happens automatically after 28 days without a first minister. Otherwise they need 2/3rds of the chamber to vote for one.

Ironically, the only other party that should be worried about an election is the Tories. Greens, Labour, and Lib Dems all should pick up more seats if polls are accurate (plus the greens get their presiding officer seat back, I think)
 
Election Polling has the SNP and Labour on an equal footing based on current polling. We could be looking at a minority administration no matter who wins the next election.

SNP - 42 (-22)
Labour - 42 (+20)
Conservative 23 (-8)
Liberal Democrat 12 (+8)
Green - 10 (+2)
 
ZenGiraffe said:
GOOD LORD.

THIS IS THE WORST TIME LINE

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I feel so vindicated for hating both of them for far longer than it has been fashionable. Rowling because of her financial intervention in the 2014 Independence Referendum (which Ash has seemingly forgotten about because hate conquers all) and Ash because she was a cunt to me on the one occasion I met her back when she was campaigning for independence in the Borders alongside one my dad.
 
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:RuGlasses:

Tories are moving a non-binding vote of no confidence in Yousaf.

Labour are moving a binding vote of no confidence in the Government.

The latter is much more likely to lead to an election, which neither Ash Regan nor the Tories want. So I think this makes a Kate Forbes first ministership more likely, as Regan and possibly the Tories can justify supporting or abstaining on the latter under a different first minister.
 
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