2024 US Presidential Election

funky said:
No it isn't :D that's why you poll more people, to iron out the variables!
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:nononono:

An unrepresentative sample is unrepresentative regardless of size.

There is so much more to polling than just asking as many people as you can find how they will vote. There is checking how the characteristics of the people in your sample compare to the population as a whole (eg. On Gender or race). How likely are people to vote? What variables do you use to predict likely voting behaviour.

A bigger sample is better than a smaller sample all else being equal, yes, but you can't just point at the poll with the biggest sample size and say that it's the best.

The problem with polls herding is that it suggest the pollsters are doing something to make their poll more like the others, usually by tweaking with their weightings.
 
ZenGiraffe said:
:nononono:

An unrepresentative sample is unrepresentative regardless of size.

There is so much more to polling than just asking as many people as you can find how they will vote. There is checking how the characteristics of the people in your sample compare to the population as a whole (eg. On Gender or race). How likely are people to vote? What variables do you use to predict likely voting behaviour.

A bigger sample is better than a smaller sample all else being equal, yes, but you can't just point at the poll with the biggest sample size and say that it's the best.

The problem with polls herding is that it suggest the pollsters are doing something to make their poll more like the others, usually by tweaking with their weightings.
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Thank you for that KINDERGARDEN lesson on how polls work!

I stand by the point that, no matter how shape or rationalise or strategically build your sampling model, the more people you ask, the more accurate the answer is.

Stop trying to educate me, it's really patronising! I'm older than you, I've worked longer than you, and have actually WORKED IN THIS FIELD.

I'm not even disagreeing with the point about the polls being wrong, I'm still predicting she's going to win. So stop looking for arguments!
 
Nate Silver* has just published an interesting though long post on poll herding, and it contains a sliver of good news for Harris.

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*Evil
 
The Nostradamus fella (the one who has accurately predicted every election result bar one since Reagan) did an interview this week pretty much slating Nate Silver… his own non-quantitative approach is actually quite interesting when he breaks it down. Anyway, he picked Harris back in August and he’s sticking to it.
 
538 seems to be shifting back in Harris’ favour too. Trump still ahead, but it’s gone from 53-47 to 51-49 in the past 48 hours.

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ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.
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VoR said:
538 seems to be shifting back in Harris’ favour too. Trump still ahead, but it’s gone from 53-47 to 51-49 in the past 48 hours.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

ABC News – Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com projects.fivethirtyeight.com
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50-49 now. :eyes: (1 in 100 chance of a tie)
 
On the face thing - does he self-apply or does he have a makeup artist?

I’m imagining some pound shop version of Raven from RuPaul’s Drag Race with half a gallon of Ronseal, a spatula and a strict 3 minute touch-up window between rallies.
 
Wouldn’t that be lovely. Iowa has been hovering in the slightly lean category for a while now, it’s quite strange given the rest of the polling. But I’ll take it!
 
The one thing I’m not too happy about with the democrats showing a slight uptick / slowing of the Republican comeback the last few days is the chance that it might convince some swaying democrats to not bother voting. The closer it is the more people get out to vote. I have to believe Trump’s support is capped so higher turnout has to be better for Kamala
 
funky said:
The one thing I’m not too happy about with the democrats showing a slight uptick / slowing of the Republican comeback the last few days is the chance that it might convince some swaying democrats to not bother voting. The closer it is the more people get out to vote. I have to believe Trump’s support is capped so higher turnout has to be better for Kamala
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Actually Kamala has a commanding lead with likely voters and falls behind when uncommitted and low propensity voters are factored in. So a lower turnout might actually work in her favour. The big risk is a huge wave of straight white male voters on Tuesday.
 
American politics and remotely sensible are not two things I’ve put together much lately

A few of you on here have said all along that Kamala will perform better than the polls are telling us, even when the polls were telling us she was doing okay.

The final polling seems to be tracking closer to that. I hope your predictions come true.
 
Though the actual vote in Florida may not matter as DeSantis announced today that government election supervisors would be banned from the vote counts. :manson:

It’s basically the US equivalent of fucking Belarus at this point.
 
VoR said:
Actually Kamala has a commanding lead with likely voters and falls behind when uncommitted and low propensity voters are factored in. So a lower turnout might actually work in her favour. The big risk is a huge wave of straight white male voters on Tuesday.
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Someone block the traffic on the high streets out of downtown Atlanta, Detroit and Philadelphia please! Particularly where BANKING happens and maybe also the GOLF COURSES
 
I'd be very curious if the legal challenges will come to haunt the republicans. If it does end up being a reasonable Harris win and not a close one, will the vaguely sensible non-democrats see the legal action as nonsense and switch off from them?
 
Oh it would be delicious if their TOO BIG TO RIG catchphrase completely blew up in their faces…
 
I love this summary

  • Trump continues to lead with his core base of support: men, evangelicals, rural residents and those without a college degree.
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Gilead is coming for us all!
 
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