Most places have Belgium a relatively safe lower than evens (1/6) to qualify, albeit ranked about eighth in the odds. Ahead of Cyprus and San Marino on that front too (and the latter feel like a really obvious non-shock DNQ) - it'd probably take two or more of Azerbaijan, Slovenia, Iceland, Portugal and Croatia qualifying for Red Sebastian to actually seriously be at risk. Not that he really is, people just love getting carried away with the narrative of an early mover and shaker in the favourites going out!