Eurovision 2025 Semi One: Predict the Qualifiers

CHOOSE TEN

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VoR

VoR

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We have them all now, though running order is still TBC

First Half
Estonia: Tommy Cash - Espresso Macchiato
Iceland: VÆB - RÓA
Poland: Justyna - Gaja
Portugal: NAPA - Deslocado
Slovenia: Klemen - How Much Time Do We Have Left?
Sweden: KAJ - Bara bada bastu
Ukraine: Ziferblat - Bird of Prey

Second Half
Albania: Shkodra Elektronike - Zjerm
Azerbaijan: Mamagama - Run With U
Belgium: Red Sebastian - Strobe Lights
Croatia: Marko Bošnjak - Poison Cake
Cyprus: Theo Evan - Shh
Netherlands: Claude - C'est la vie
Norway: Kyle Alessandro - Lighter
San Marino: Gabry Ponte - Tutta L’Italia
 
Tricky to say before the draw but given it a go. I could see a path for an Estonia NQ if the performance stays as lacklustre as it is, as well as Portugal managing to slip through as they seem to be pretty good at (although their key diaspora countries aren’t in this semi). I’d love San Marino to qualify but staging this sort of song has never worked at ESC before and I’m not sure how much the rest of Europe will care.
 
In rough order of likelihood.

Sweden
Ukraine
Poland
Estonia
Netherlands
Albania
Cyprus
Norway
San Marino (If they get the staging right I'd bump this up a bit, but I fear they'll drop the ball)
Slovenia (Could just as easily come dead last with zero points, a very tough one to call)

---
Belgium (Currently banking on Cyprus killing it, but the reverse could happen - we do at least have evidence that Red Seb is competent live)
Portugal (Absolutely see a world where this slips through to gay bafflement, is it the first Portuguese entry ever to do so well out of the gate on Portuguese Spotify?)
Azerbaijan (Hard to predict, but their powers seem greatly weakened of late and it is quite forgettable)
Iceland (This just feels increasingly DOA)
Croatia (What a dreadful comedown!)


Fairly confident of Sweden to Albania. Beyond that it's very had to call which four of the remaining nine might pull ahead.
 
I think Iceland is a sure qualifier. Instantly catchy and memorable performance.
 
Oh god Belgium and Cyprus are in the same HALF?

I think Cyprus is toast in that case, undeservedly so.
 
In rough order of likelihood:

Sweden
Ukraine
Poland
Belgium (@VoR you are out of your TREE on this one!)
Netherlands
-
Albania (could REALLY go either way, but I think the fact it's so different probably sees it through)
Estonia (he really needs to sort the perf on this, because otherwise I see it potentially being a shock NQ)
Iceland (huge fun party moment, but an open Q on the extent to which Sweden has cannibalised the voting audience for this)
Azerbaijan (big effective radio pop track - quite different to the rest of this semi. If they can perform this should sail through)
-
Cyprus (fab track, but bit of a mess. On the bubble here - I've opted with him being easy on the eye as the way through)
---
Norway (the track should be through easy, but his performance presence is the sort that I really wouldn't trust to qualify)
San Marino (if they can sort the perf on this there's an easy road to the final. But there's a long history of tracks like this not sorting the perf out)
Portugal (hard to call, but it's a bit of an aimless MESS)
Slovenia (think Netherlands scoops up the ballady votes in this semi and this does badly)
Croatia (just HORRIBLE)
 
Safe
Sweden
Belgium
Albania
Netherlands
Ukraine

Likely
Estonia (as said above, the perf needs to improve)
Poland

Borderline
Cyprus
San Marino (I’d put this into the likely category if the perf was improved, and I do have a hunch this could be the semi closer)
Norway
———————
Azerbaijan
Iceland
Slovenia

Unlikely
Croatia
Portugal
 
Last edited:
I'm guessing one of Estonia, Iceland or Poland opens. Belgium, San Marino or maybe Norway closing.
 
Safely IN

Sweden
Ukraine
Netherlands
Poland
Albania
Belgium

I have absolutely no clue but predicting it in because life is suffering

Estonia

Borderline IN

Cyprus
Norway
Iceland

Borderline OUT

Slovenia (could go through if the story resonated enough with the basics or Estonia gets what it actually deserves)
San Marino
Azerbaijan

Safely OUT

Portugal
Croatia
 
Safe
Ukraine
Sweden
Estonia (a dog's dinner now but they'll throw everything at this for the real thing)
Albania
Poland (diaspora will wake up for this and she's lucky to stand out more than she would have done)

Likely
The Netherlands (I've got this in, but it's my top candidate for potential shock NQ)
Belgium (on shakier ground now thanks to Cyprus but I think it'll probably have wider appeal of the two)
Norway
Iceland

Borderline (these are both massive unknowns in terms of how they'll hang together live)
Cyprus
San Marino

Doubtful
Slovenia (opposite of Netherlands in that it could be shock top ten but it really shouldn't be anywhere near)
Azerbaijan (a shame but it's really not competitive)
Croatia

Dead on arrival
Portugal
 
I've reconsidered my hasty judgement on Cyprus killing Belgium and knocked out San Marino instead - those DJ-fronted acts flop far more often than they hit (Lum!x, Grommee, Darude).

Portugal is doing remarkably well on their local Spotify listings, which has me wondering if we're all missing something. They've gone through with low-key stuff before.
 
Confident

Sweden
Ukraine (would probably be unlikely for most countries, but I won't begrudge them too much, it's a lot better than 'Heart of Steel' to my ears at least, and that was a televote top 5)
Albania (coming for their best result since 'Suus' surely, seems like the kind of thing casuals will eat up and has sounded better and better as the season has progressed)
Belgium (we know he can sing, and I think it has more broad appeal than Cyprus)
Poland (really helped by being the only solo female here)
Slovenia (this will really standout amongst the nonsense in the first half, and I think there is an audience for it)

Likely

Netherlands
Norway (I don't get this, but apparently it's high on the scoreboard app? :confused:)

Borderline in

Cyprus
San Marino (I know these entries are hard to stage, but I'm trying to be optimistic because of it being a banger and hopefully already having high points from Italy on lock)
--
Borderline out

Azerbaijan (am a fan, just don't know if it stands out enough. Plus they aren't the force they once were :eyes:)
Estonia (I will never be able to bring myself to predict this through, it is just SO shit and I will hold onto the belief that the audience will recognise that, although it's apparently doing well on the tiktok)
Iceland

Not a chance

Portugal (the last three entries have been rather popular with fans and I think deserved qualifiers. 2021 was staged well. I don't think we need to worry about this one sneaking through)
Croatia
 
First qualification odds have dropped:

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Hard to argue with that, Iceland could take San Marino’s spot depending on staging.
 
I’m not convinced by Norway either tbh but seems I’m in the minority there.
 
The top nine looks relatively solid, San Marino are definitely the bubble. Hopefully if there's a surprise it'll be at the expense of Belgium or Norway and not our Polish Witch queen. :(

I'd still say Portugal have the best chance of the ones currently outside the betting top ten. They quietly have quite a big expat vote and this song seems to be resonating quite strongly with that audience.
 
Cyprus would have to really fuck it if they're going to miss out as a show closer.
 
I'm genuinely surprised to read comments considering Norway as a potential NQ. Since its selection I've been convinced it will end up somewhere between 8th and 12th in the final :D
 
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