Predict how many seats the Labour Party will win at the next election

[ZenGiraffe]

With the election likely to happen by this time next year (and at the absolute latest, in 13 months), and opinion polls showing a Labour majority highly likely, how many seats do you think they will get?

Assuming the election is under the new boundaries (which unless a snap election is called tomorrow, I think is a given) there are:

650 Seats UK wide

543 in England
57 in Scotland
32 in Wales
18 in Northern Ireland

326 seats needed for an absolute majority.

So let's all embarrass ourselves before the next election with wildly incorrect predictions. Please also give your reasons why in the thread.

 

[ZenGiraffe]

Starmer is not that impressive a politician. He will struggle in debates, and the Tories and especially Lib Dems will make some gains between now and the election. The SNP won't lose quite so many seats either, so I think the Labour majority (and it will be a majority) will be much narrower than is currently predicted.

 

[Kratz]

I will say 376-400 with expectations at the upper end of that but above 400 would not surprise me (even realising a doubling of their seats).

It's important to remember just how low a base they will start from - I am going to factor in a degree of Tory swing-back but also the potential for Reform to cut into the Tory vote and allow Labour to come through the middle (which is why over 400 wouldn't surprise particularly if they perform as strongly as it seems they will in Scotland). I'm not expecting a great degree of change from where we are now, which suggests somewhere in the region of 400.

 

[Jark]

351-375, with similar reasoning to Zen. Starmer's deep lack of personal popularity and inability or refusal to lay out an actual vision for the country will ensure that any dreams of a fat labour majority remain just that. the Tories will also campaign dirty and that will probably work to some degree.

 

[VoR]

Based on two very safe Tory seats flipping Labour at the recent by-elections, I am choosing optimism.

 

[Madíson]

I choose pessimism. No General Election has turned a majority government of one colour into a majority government of the other since 1970. Something will go wrong.

 

[octophone]

If they had a leader with some principle and character, 380+ would be possible. Such as it, they'll fall short.

 

[ZenGiraffe]

I choose pessimism.

So did I, hence why I predicted a Labour majority

 

[RJN]

I choose pessimism

The Labour Party's new slogan?

 

[GNL]

If they had a leader with some principle and character, 380+ would be possible. Such as it, they'll fall short.

I suspect for a barnstorming majority they need a leader with character but NO PRINCIPLES. Keir is halfway there, but he's no Tonty.