2024 US Presidential Election

I just don’t get the panic when a stronger Trump lost to a weaker opponent 4 years ago, yet we’re worried he’ll somehow do better this time despite being quite clearly out of SPUNK.

Don’t @ me when it all goes Handmaid’s Tale, but I’m not even sweating this one.
 
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I’d be more worried about the extensive plans the Republicans are making to try and steal the election they know they’re going to lose!
 
I 100% agree at that when you look at it big picture. It completely makes sense on every conceivable level that he would do worse in this election.

But the polls are not telling that story. Not even close.

The polls have been wrong many times before. But they are rarely wrong in favour of the left.

That all being said I am taking Lucille’s optimism like a dose of Xanax and choosing not to dwell on it any more tonight
 
Hasn’t Harris been consistently polling better in PA than she has Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina?

Because if she’s to survive losing PA, she can’t afford to also lose any of them.
 
Hasn’t Harris been consistently polling better in PA than she has Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina?

Because if she’s to survive losing PA, she can’t afford to also lose any of them.

THIS. THIS IS MY ISSUE.

Damn you VoR, I was just about to run with Lucille’s take and you took me RIGHT BACK THERE.
 
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In the interest of balance, in 2022 the Dems did significantly outperform the polls, and some recent smaller regional elections have swung big for them.

Harris also has a strong lead with likely voters and only falls even/behind when uncommitteds are added.

Basically it all comes down to how many stupid people turn out.
 
She can lose PA and one of those 3 and still win. If she wins GA she can lose AZ and NC!

She isn’t losing AZ so it basically comes down to her winning one of GA or NC (she can’t lose both of them and PA)

Personally I think she’s winning both anyway.

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My one other thread of optimism that I’ve been FIDDLING WITH is that Trump has been displaying the same kind of “I can’t even be fucking arsed with this” mentality as he did in 2020, saying he won’t run again if he loses, the world is fucked etc, versus in 2016 when he kept his mouth shut virtually the whole time when it looked like he was losing (largely because all the sex scandals were just coming out)

It seems like he constantly knows something we don’t (which is probably true given his contracts with thousands of Russian influencers, thanks Putin) and so maybe he really IS losing this time :D
 
I see we've reached the 'Trump is literally shitting himself onstage and the polls are still tied' portion of the cycle.

 
I don’t know what’s worse - funky’s doom and gloom or Lucille entering her scat queen phase.
 
You really know you’ve made it on moopy when you’re being judged at the same standard as scat jokes
 
The bookies odds have swung quite strongly towards a Trump win in the last couple of days. Anyone know why???
 
The bookies odds have swung quite strongly towards a Trump win in the last couple of days. Anyone know why???
I blame Elon Musk paying people to register people to vote for trump. I don't think it's reflecting a genuine feeling that things are swinging his way, but just a lot of rabid dickheads flooding the betting market for Trump.

Which is why we ignore the betting markets! They are a NONSENSE
 
Polls mean less and less the closer the competition gets. In this case, they're basically meaningless because the difference between the candidates is well within the margin of error.

... And yet, both Democrats and Republicans (and their respective media networks) continue to use poll numbers when they need a convenient 'statistic'.
 
Also I don't look at "polls". I look at aggregated polls, trends and momentum as it's the only thing that ever makes the slightest bit of sense. I never pay attention to individual polling.

This election has too many variables, that's why it's mad. Shifts in demo behaviour, shifts in demo loyalty, a returning former president, an unexpected change in the democratic nominee, multiple wars splitting traditional loyalties and just the TRUMP factor being so unpredictable generally. So when the overall polling is very close, of course it's going to cause conjecture.

There's a hundred of those podcasts out there, a third of them say the democratic polling is biased, a third of them say the republican polling is, and the other third to say take no notice entirely.

This election won't be decided until election night, but that doesn't mean we can't TALK ABOUT IT IN THE MEANTIME
 
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