Will the hard right hijack the next UK general election?

[Jark]

By which I mean: we've seen quite a number of times now that when all of the mainstream parties and candidates allow immigration to be the issue on which an election is fought, the hard right and their anti-immigration rhetoric become legitimised.

it's just happened in the Netherlands. Le Pen is far more powerful in France than many expected. Meloni has entirely changed the face of the right in Italy... in all cases immigration was allowed by all parties to become a or the key issue of the election, and voters lurched right.

we are not Europe of course. technically. polling to date has shown it is NOT the most important issue to UK voters right now, but it is the inescapable one. so my questions are:

- with Farage's Reform UK polling on 8 (and as high as 10) points nationally, the man himself eating koala dick in the jungle, the Tories continuing to double down and Labour taking at times a shockingly tough stance on immigration itself (Starmer and Reeves seem as set on reversing it as Sunak), is next year's GE going to be fought primarily on immigration?
- are we taking for granted a Labour victory?
- could the Tories and Reform form a coalition on the right?
- could Reform vastly outperform current expectations and maybe finish third?
- will the UK elect a hard-right government in 2024?

 

[bypass]

I say this as someone who is far from being a fan of Labour or the Starmer party...

While it is of course not beyond the realms of possibility that the Tories could somehow win the next general election, I'd say at this point it really is very very unlikely.

They have consistently been 15-20 points behind Labour in the polls for well over a year, and we are at max one year away from the next general election(many experts are now saying May is most likely). There is no historical precedent for an incumbent party being this far behind, this close to an election and somehow being able to pull it back.

There is also the reasoning that life for many people now is just so SHIT, and they KNOW full well its not because of too many FOREIGNERS TAKIN' OUR JOBS. Sure, that rhetoric will be bought by some voters but they were probably going to voty Tory or Reform anyway. It's not going to lure the swing voters they need.

However, that being said, we should of course never underestimate the gullibility and stupidity of some voters, and the rise of far right parties right now especially in Europe is fucking terrifying.

Huge reforms are needed in the UK, not just a "slightly less" bad option i.e. Labour, and FPTP voting is absolutely not fit for person. I really worry that if/when the Tories lose the next general election it will simply be a 5 year breather and they they'll be straight back in...we're already facing that prospect in the states with Trump - and that should scare everyone.

 

[ZenGiraffe]

we are not Europe of course.

We are though. We're just not EU anymore

will the UK elect a hard-right government in 2024?

No. Not with that polling deficit.

could Reform vastly outperform current expectations and maybe finish third?

Babe, they have never won a seat at a general election. They're not going to go from that to 40+

are we taking for granted a Labour victory?

God I hope so. HUNG PARLIAMENT PLEASE (with Lab+Lib Dem+SNP being the pathway to a majority)

 

[octophone]

The trouble is that the Tories can't appeal to racists with Sunak as leader. We've already seen footage of "Tory voters" complaining about having a non-white Prime Minister. Reform *can* appeal to racists and can soak up a chunk of the Tory vote but they can't win seats - they may choose one or two to go hard in with a known candidate (although Lee Anderson seems to have ruled himself out) but they can only claim Tory votes, which could potentially cost them the odd marginal.

I'd like a Lib/Lab coalition for the next government - someone needs to ameliorate Labour's extremists, otherwise it's going to be an absolute shitshow with Starmer trying to please everyone and this, pissing off everyone.

 

[Suedehead]

I think the whole immigration thing is politicking at its worst - it's simply not a priority for a public that has been hit hard with cost of living and inflation.
I don't think we are in danger of shifting to the hard right.
It'll either be a Labour majority, or a hung parliament which will lead to Labour/Lib Dem coalition (my favoured option).
But maybe I'm too optimistic.

 

[big ron]

We're way ahead of the curb with the populism, we've already had our far right sock puppets in charge of the country and people are sick of it. Change is coming.

What concerns me more is the Tories doubling even further down when they lose. Even when they aren't in charge they have control of public narrative with links to the press, and when they know they are staring down the barrel of at least 4 years in the political wilderness they could in theory ramp up the rhetoric.

I would love to see a broader coalition in power with some eco/progressive representation, Lib/Lab/Green (and SNP but can't see it happening) that tempers the centralist/righter side of Labour.

 

[big ron]

Also, that poll...

 

[VoR]

I do think Reform will do worryingly well and possibly pick up a few seats. But no they’re obviously not going to win.

 

[dmlaw]

At least if Reform do win a few seats, we'll know which parts of the country most urgently need to be sawn off and allowed to drift into the sea.

 

[ZenGiraffe]

At least if Reform do win a few seats, we'll know which parts of the country most urgently need to be sawn off and allowed to drift into the sea.

That's easy.

EVERYTHING SOUTH OF BERRICK-UPON-TWEED

 

[Indie]

BERRICK-UPON-TWEED

Never heard of it.

 

[ZenGiraffe]

Never heard of it.

It's the AULD SCOTS NAME.

Don't google it, just believe me please.

 

[Madíson]

Is there a difference between England & Wales (sans Berwick) drifting in the sea, and Scotland and Berwick drifting instead? I wouldn’t mind being closer to the Netherlands and Norway.

God help us if we end up with years of debate on trade across the Scotland Berwick border.

 

[Indie]

Also, if it's South of Berwick, what becomes of Ayr, Kilmarnock, Kintyre, Stranraer, the Isle of Arran etc?

 

[ZenGiraffe]

Also, if it's South of Berwick, what becomes of Ayr, Kilmarnock, Kintyre, Stranraer, the Isle of Arran etc?

NOTHING OF VALUE WILL BE LOST

 

[octophone]

Well, we have the recipe for the Killie pie, I guess.

 

[auretz]

Due to the UK constituency system, I can't see how they'd pick up any seats - is there any seat where they're remotely close to first place? If anything, they should split the vote with the Tories in some of the marginals. The danger is more around how they push the other parties to engage with their views, a la the Brexit referendum.

 

[Indie]

Due to the UK constituency system, I can't see how they'd pick up any seats - is there any seat where they're remotely close to first place? If anything, they should split the vote with the Tories in some of the marginals. The danger is more around how they push the other parties to engage with their views, a la the Brexit referendum.

It's not entirely out of the realms that they could pick up a couple. If you take the Brexit party, they came 2nd in 4 seats at 2019 GE.

A little bit of legitimisation (such as talking about them openly on gay chat longes) & bot-pushing on social media, and you never know.

 

[GNL]

What concerns me more is the Tories doubling even further down when they lose. Even when they aren't in charge they have control of public narrative with links to the press, and when they know they are staring down the barrel of at least 4 years in the political wilderness they could in theory ramp up the rhetoric.

Yes I'd say this is my concern.

If Braverman or Badenoch take over the Tories may as well be the 'Reform Party' or whatever the latest iteration of the BNP are calling themselves now, and then political coverage will be all about balancing a centrist government against the FRINGE GBNEWS LUNATICS who'll be left on the opposition bench after the Tories flop this election.

 

[octophone]

It's not entirely out of the realms that they could pick up a couple. If you take the Brexit party, they came 2nd in 4 seats at 2019 GE.

A little bit of legitimisation (such as talking about them openly on gay chat longes) & bot-pushing on social media, and you never know.

This has to be their realistic aim - target a small handful of seats where the polling indicates they could succeed. Get a high profile candidate or two and get themselves into the Commons. That legitimises them and, given that they would be sitting in the opposition benches with the Tories, they will soon become indistinguishable.

 

[octophone]

If Reform do become an electoral force, the inevitable squabbling with the Tories over who's the most right wing allows for a potential change in the conversation. In particular, what does the centre now look like and is it Labour? If so, what does the left wing look like?

The Tories could accidentally move themselves out of the picture; if they want to be like Reform i.e. racist, little islander, fringe loonies offering not a solitary policy aimed at improving the lives of the people, then, fine, do that, we can treat them as such. Yes, that's more than ambitious given the nature of the UK press (we could do with a few billionaires dying) but I'm talking about a timespan of 25-30 years and we need to be ambitious.

 

[Madíson]

The only thing worse than Reform running is Reform not running. Far too many on the left ignore the realities of first past the post. It would be nice if the same thing affects the right too.

 

[octophone]

The only thing worse than Reform running is Reform not running. Far too many on the left ignore the realities of first past the post. It would be nice if the same thing affects the right too.

Well, UKIP did a dodgy deal with Johnson and stood down in a lot of seats. Given that Nige got the shaft from that and was left with nothing, could the far right really be so stupid as to believe in the Tories again?

 

[Madíson]

Well, UKIP did a dodgy deal with Johnson and stood down in a lot of seats. Given that Nige got the shaft from that and was left with nothing, could the far right really be so stupid as to believe in the Tories again?

It was the cleverest thing Farage ever did, and it won him a hard Brexit.

Running would still a be stupid thing for Reform to do. I hope they are that stupid.

 

[Funky]

For the first time in as long as I can remember, the right is far more fractured than the left. Lib Dems and SNP still eat into Labours votes but not as much as recent years, while the Tories are not only haemorrhaging voters to Farage, Fox and the other loony outliers, but a lot of their base are just generally disenfranchised and might not vote at all.

I don’t think they stand a hope.

 

[Jark]

personally I think there's a lot of naivety in this thread. things can change fast in politics. i believe that if this election is fought on immigration, if Labour and the Lib Dems are sucked into making that top of the agenda, the outcome is not going to be pretty. and regardless I think Reform will do quite well.

 

[ZenGiraffe]

SNP still eat into Labour

Labour is eating into the SNP

 

[Alex]

personally I think there's a lot of naivety in this thread. things can change fast in politics. i believe that if this election is fought on immigration, if Labour and the Lib Dems are sucked into making that top of the agenda, the outcome is not going to be pretty. and regardless I think Reform will do quite well.

Lib Dems won't be sucked in as they are counting on picking up seats from the Tories where the view is they've gone too far right already

 

[octophone]

It was the cleverest thing Farage ever did, and it won him a hard Brexit.

Running would still a be stupid thing for Reform to do. I hope they are that stupid.

On a personal level but he didn't get his knighthood and now he's sat in the jungle, doing nothing and garnering not a single headline. It'll be back to beer money on Cameo when he gets out. (and all the dodgy money he gets to keep being a useful idiot, of course...)

 

[bypass]

personally I think there's a lot of naivety in this thread. things can change fast in politics. i believe that if this election is fought on immigration, if Labour and the Lib Dems are sucked into making that top of the agenda, the outcome is not going to be pretty. and regardless I think Reform will do quite well.

The Tories have pushed immigration hard through the last 5 years though, and despite their best efforts the economy, cost of living and the NHS alll poll way above it in terms of the general publics most pressing concerns. It plays well with the far right but all its going to do with swing voters(who the tories need) is piss them off.

They are also an incumbent government of 13 years - 13 years of stagnant to non existant growth.

I'm not suggest that the public are in love with Starmer or Labour(far far from it) but people are fed up and unless there is some seismic event(which of course could happen, not impossible) I just dont see how the Tories can come anywhere close to clawing it back.

 

[Saltwater]

I think the whole immigration thing is politicking at its worst - it's simply not a priority for a public that has been hit hard with cost of living and inflation.

Exactly, it's scapegoating.

 

[Funky]

Labour is eating into the SNP

In Scotland they are yes. In the general election it’s obviously the other way around.

 

[gggggg]

I’m tempted to say we’ve had our dalliance with this type of politics, and seen the outcome. Radical fringes take hold when prevailing systems are no longer deemed beneficial or trustworthy in the public mind. And there is a lack of viable alternatives. This could be for any number of reasons, and, of course, gamed for political gain. But after seven (read: 14) years of decline, the appeal of that has a hard ceiling of ~20%. Not enough to break through even in the dirtiest of short campaigns. At least that is my sense.