UK General Election 2024 - July 4th

How are you likely to vote?

  • Total voters
    67
What is going on with our Queen of hearts DIANE? Nobody, including Labour, or Diane herself, seems to know.
 
Oh so some rat leaked to the media that this was a deal they made before it could be announced? SCUM!
 
Finn said:
But WHY AM I STILL NERVOUS?
Click to expand...
In a world that's given us Trump, Brexit etc I think that's only natural.

For what it's worth I don't think there's anyway the Tories can snatch this now but I also wouldn't bet my life on them losing either.

People talk about how the polls in the run up to 1992 and 2015 were much much tighter and this is absolutely true.- however, it does feel eerie in the sense of "uuhhh we've been here before."

Even with the massive poll deficits
 
Last edited:
Not half. Genuinely think I'll need to leave the country if the Tories get back in.

Not that things will be any better for me personally under Labour but they're - on the whole - marginally less evil, the usual suspects notwithstanding. I still can't vote for them - Diane Abbott's not welcome but Rosie Duffield and Natalie Fucking Elphicke are just fine? Not on your nelly.
 
How does the polling compare to 1997 by the way?

We’ve seen lots of comparisons made to 97 but I haven’t seen any like for like polling…
 
YouGov is a bit of left leaning outlier at times, but the changes are still on track with other polls.
 
funky said:
How does the polling compare to 1997 by the way?

We’ve seen lots of comparisons made to 97 but I haven’t seen any like for like polling…
Click to expand...
1716976678683.png


Opinion polling for the 1997 United Kingdom general election - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
 
funky said:
How does the polling compare to 1997 by the way?

We’ve seen lots of comparisons made to 97 but I haven’t seen any like for like polling…
Click to expand...
Similar period before the 97 election, both parties were higher, Lab 52%, Con 30%. So about the same.
 
AGinAg (39) said:
YouGov is a bit of left leaning outlier at times, but the changes are still on track with other polls.
Click to expand...

YouGov does tend to flatter Labour a bit. Opinium tends to be suspiciously kind to the Tories.

Should be worth noting the YouGov was VERY close with the last 2 general elections.
 
funky said:
I’m actually shocked that even with over 50s the left vote adds up to more than the right vote.

How is this the same country that voted for Brexit
Click to expand...
Voter apathy, people not thinking voting is important.

Case in point Brexit, between me, 4 adult siblings and my parents I was the only one who voted.
 
Utilising capacity in the private sector has been a thing for as long as I've studied/worked in healthcare (since 2008). This plan is just doing it on a wider and more visible scale. There's a global shortage of healthcare staff, and working conditions in the NHS are disgusting. Frankly, I'd be far more alarmed if Labour's approach was "we'll just hire more nurses and doctors". Increasing university places is an ideal long-term aspiration, but most nursing courses are under-subscribed (our most recent spring cohort - which is commissioned for 100 places - had 6 applicants). People won't apply until they see the NHS as a functioning, desirable place to work.

That being said, it's naive to think the private sector will allow that extra capacity (which exists) to be used in return for payment from the NHS for an agreed-upon period of time and once the agreement ends, that's it. The more people come into contact with healthcare through privately run services in well-kept, modern facilities, with lots of additional 'customer service' frills the NHS would never provide, the harder it will be to go back.
 
Slave said:
Utilising capacity in the private sector has been a thing for as long as I've studied/worked in healthcare (since 2008). This plan is just doing it on a wider and more visible scale. There's a global shortage of healthcare staff, and working conditions in the NHS are disgusting. Frankly, I'd be far more alarmed if Labour's approach was "we'll just hire more nurses and doctors". Increasing university places is an ideal long-term aspiration, but most nursing courses are under-subscribed (our most recent spring cohort - which is commissioned for 100 places - had 6 applicants). People won't apply until they see the NHS as a functioning, desirable place to work.

That being said, it's naive to think the private sector will allow that extra capacity (which exists) to be used in return for payment from the NHS for an agreed-upon period of time and once the agreement ends, that's it. The more people come into contact with healthcare through privately run services in well-kept, modern facilities, with lots of additional 'customer service' frills the NHS would never provide, the harder it will be to go back.
Click to expand...
Yup, sadly this is it. I've had private healthcare recently under the NHS and it was fantastic, efficient and quick. I guess so long as it's still free at the point of service and it isn't costing the taxpayer more, does it matter? I assume the NHS paying me for private, was cheaper for them, but I have no idea.
 
funky said:
I’m actually shocked that even with over 50s the left vote adds up to more than the right vote.

How is this the same country that voted for Brexit
Click to expand...

It's not. Covid killed about 1/4 million of them, unaffordable heating bills killed a bunch more.

Add to that all the people who realised they'd been lied to and you have a significant divide - those who have seen what has happened and responded vs the double-downers who would crash the entire country rather than admit they were wrong.
 
The first head-to-head general election debate will be hosted by ITV next week, the broadcaster has confirmed.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer will face each other on Tuesday, 4 June, at 21:00 BST.

The hour-long programme - titled Sunak v Starmer: The ITV Debate - will be moderated by presenter Julie Etchingham, who also hosted debates in 2015, 2017 and 2019.

This is the first thing that could really turn the opinion polls. I kinda think they're both so shit that it's a waste of time but if only one of them bombs, it could get interesting.
 
Baby bypasanga said:
YouGov does tend to flatter Labour a bit. Opinium tends to be suspiciously kind to the Tories.

Should be worth noting the YouGov was VERY close with the last 2 general elections.
Click to expand...
Opinium and Survation weight their polling in a particular way in line with actual past results. They also allocate ‘Don’t Know’ voters in a different way to YouGov. YouGov also add a squeeze question for DKs which Opinium doesn’t. I’ll be keen to see the YouGov MRP polling when it comes out, that has been very close in recent elections.

All recent changes in polls are within the margin of error anyway, so in the immortal words of Theresa May NOTHING HAS CHANGED!
 
Lucille said:
Still not a clue tbh, IS SHE STANDING THEN?

Click to expand...


She was supposed to be standing down. Some trouble maker leaked some bullshit to Times and now it’s kicking off. At this point they should let her stand if she wants to. FWIW Starmer has said she hasn’t been barred.
 
I was under the impression Starmer didn't have an issue with Abbott? Certainly not in the way he despises Corbyn.
 
octophone said:
This is the first thing that could really turn the opinion polls. I kinda think they're both so shit that it's a waste of time but if only one of them bombs, it could get interesting.
Click to expand...
Doubtful. Nobody watches these things, and they mainly just reinforce what people already think.
 
octophone said:
The first head-to-head general election debate will be hosted by ITV next week, the broadcaster has confirmed.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer will face each other on Tuesday, 4 June, at 21:00 BST.

The hour-long programme - titled Sunak v Starmer: The ITV Debate - will be moderated by presenter Julie Etchingham, who also hosted debates in 2015, 2017 and 2019.
Click to expand...

Absolutely dreading the debates. This is where I think the worst of the populist muck will be thrown.
 
The good news is, we're now a week down. Just five weeks of this pointless mess to go.
 
gggggg said:
Doubtful. Nobody watches these things, and they mainly just reinforce what people already think.
Click to expand...

I don't think that's necessarily true. Nick Clegg's performance in 2010 was really impactful, and I'd argue we still see the effects of it now in the way many politicians (try to) conduct themselves on TV.

That said, I think the concept probably lost appeal the last time around when it included leaders from seven parties. While that may have been politically fairer, it probably lacked the same entertainment value because there were more voices with less time to speak.

I'm not sure Starmer vs. Sunak will necessarily get viewing figures comparable to the debates in 2019 (7 million viewers), but I wouldn't be surprised to see it close to the top of @lolly's TV ratings chart in a few weeks.
 
Slave said:
I don't think that's necessarily true. Nick Clegg's performance in 2010 was really impactful,
Click to expand...

That's because he was less of a known quantity at the time compared to Brown and Cameron. Not much chance of that happening again if the only debates that happen are Sunak/Starmer head to heads.
 
Sunak surely won't get any kind of bump from this BTW - he's dreadful at it! The man lost to LIZ TRUSS.
 
VoR said:
Sunak surely won't get any kind of bump from this BTW - he's dreadful at it! The man lost to LIZ TRUSS.
Click to expand...
And they know that only too well. Hence the dread of the populist muck slinging @Tetris-Rock refers to. They have absolutely nothing else to fall back on.
 
Slave said:
I don't think that's necessarily true. Nick Clegg's performance in 2010 was really impactful
Click to expand...
Impactful in the sense there was a bit of hype of the novelty of it… then the Lib Dems actually lost seats at the election
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 1 (members: 0, guests: 1)
Back
Top Bottom