UK General Election 2024 - July 4th

How are you likely to vote?

  • Total voters
    67
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The 12 safest Tories per that tool

Andrew Griffith (Arundel & South Downs)
Christopher Chope (Christchurch)
Paul Holmes (Hamble Valley)
Mike Wood (Kingswinford and South Staffordshire)
John Whittingdale (Maldon)
Julian Lewis (New Forest East)
Ranil Jayawardena (North East Hampshire)
Kemi Badenoch (North West Essex) :zombie:
Laura Trott (Sevenoaks)
Stuart Anderson (South Shropshire)
Katie Lam (Wield of Kent)

Not the useless Laura Trott surviving even the most dire projections of a Tory apocalypse!
 
VoR said:
The 12 safest Tories per that tool

Andrew Griffith (Arundel & South Downs)
Christopher Chope (Christchurch)
Paul Holmes (Hamble Valley)
Mike Wood (Kingswinford and South Staffordshire)
John Whittingdale (Maldon)
Julian Lewis (New Forest East)
Ranil Jayawardena (North East Hampshire)
Kemi Badenoch (North West Essex) :zombie:
Laura Trott (Sevenoaks)
Stuart Anderson (South Shropshire)
Katie Lam (Wield of Kent)

Not the useless Laura Trott surviving even the most dire projections of a Tory apocalypse!
Click to expand...
I quite like the thought of Kemi Badenoch as leader of a 12 MP party, barking orders at John Whittingdale whilst he tries to hide his erection.
 
It might still be worth looking at the margins. For example, Badenoch qualifies as one of the über safe tories by virtue of never having a major poll projecting her losing, but I believe a couple have shown labour within a couple of points of overtaking her.
 
octophone said:
Because they need Labour to have less than 2/3rds of the seats. Because you know what needs 2/3rds of Parliament to vote for it? Press regulation - Levenson 2, to give it its short name.

They know they're losing, it just can't be by too much. So even if they shave it down by a few, that few is enough for them to stay on the grift.
Click to expand...
Nothing needs 2/3rds of Parliament to vote for it - a majority is a majority under the British system, it's an Americanism that Grant Shapps has just brought over because the Tories think it rhetorically helps them in terms of worrying natural Tory voters who are thinking of Reform/staying home who don't want Labour to have a lot of power...
 
Technically double majorities are a thing, where some English specific legislation needs a majority in the house overall and specifically a majority of English votes.

But it's a nonsense, because a simple majority can do what it wants with a "notwithstanding" act, see the Theresa May election.

Our parliament would probably benefit from having some legislation protected from simple majorities but that's a scale of reform that is difficult to conceive.
 
My beloved Fixed-term Parliaments Act (RIP) had a two-thirds majority requirement, but in 2019 the bastards just amended it via another Act and a simple majority.
 
VoR said:
The 12 safest Tories per that tool

Andrew Griffith (Arundel & South Downs)
Christopher Chope (Christchurch)
Paul Holmes (Hamble Valley)
Mike Wood (Kingswinford and South Staffordshire)
John Whittingdale (Maldon)
Julian Lewis (New Forest East)
Ranil Jayawardena (North East Hampshire)
Kemi Badenoch (North West Essex) :zombie:
Laura Trott (Sevenoaks)
Stuart Anderson (South Shropshire)
Katie Lam (Wield of Kent)

Not the useless Laura Trott surviving even the most dire projections of a Tory apocalypse!
Click to expand...

Wouldn't it be a TERRIBLE SHAME if somebody signed off thousands of new houses (council housing IDEALLY) in each of these constituencies, with essential infrastructure within a walkable distance.
 
ZenGiraffe said:
Technically double majorities are a thing, where some English specific legislation needs a majority in the house overall and specifically a majority of English votes.

But it's a nonsense, because a simple majority can do what it wants with a "notwithstanding" act, see the Theresa May election.

Our parliament would probably benefit from having some legislation protected from simple majorities but that's a scale of reform that is difficult to conceive.
Click to expand...
They scrapped EVEL quietly the other year if I remember correctly. After all that fuss over it back in the day!
 
VoR said:
The 12 safest Tories per that tool

Andrew Griffith (Arundel & South Downs)
Christopher Chope (Christchurch)
Paul Holmes (Hamble Valley)
Mike Wood (Kingswinford and South Staffordshire)
John Whittingdale (Maldon)
Julian Lewis (New Forest East)
Ranil Jayawardena (North East Hampshire)
Kemi Badenoch (North West Essex) :zombie:
Laura Trott (Sevenoaks)
Stuart Anderson (South Shropshire)
Katie Lam (Wield of Kent)

Not the useless Laura Trott surviving even the most dire projections of a Tory apocalypse!
Click to expand...
The YouGov MRP has the Lib Dems within a POINT of taking South Shropshire and three points off in North East Hampshire, so make that potentially just 10 if things line up perfectly :disco:
 
Been leaflet day Chez Indie

Tories and two independents. I'm surprised they aren't reform candidates, tbh. But one says he's on behalf of the "Love Party". So naturally I googled, and hers is their manifesto....

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Labour leaflet today, for the correct constituency. Lucy Powell knows where she is standing.
 
Reform leaflet as well. It was for the wrong constituency AND someone has drawn a penis on Nigel Farage’s face. That last one was me.
 
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