I've done a nerd and pulled together a quick summary of how the acting nominations have shaped up in the four major precursor ceremonies (BAFTA, Critic's Choice, Golden Globes & SAG)
Best Actress
Probably the most chaotic category this year, but with a 4/4 sweep it seems likely that Mikey Madison, Demi Moore, Karla Sofia Gascon and Cynthia Erivo will all get in. The final slot is a fight between Angelina Jolie, Marianne Jean-Baptiste and Pamela Anderson(!) with two major nominations each, plus outside bets for Nicole Kidman, Kate Winslet, Tilda Swinton, Amy Adams, Fernanda Torres or Zendaya.
My bet would be one of Baptiste, Torres or Anderson. Actually winning the Globe was a major boost for Torres. Whoever's running The Last Showgirl's campaign is doing absolutely sterling work, and Pamela Anderson's phoenix-like arc is a pretty irresistible narrative. Baptiste has years of industry clout behind her, but the film hasn't been widely seen. Kidman and Jolie's campaigns appear to be on total life support at this stage, but the Oscars can be quite conservative in their voting so one or both may just get in on recognition factor alone.
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Best Actor
A more stable category, with Brody, Chalamet, Domingo and Fiennes all but assured. (If one is slightly vulnerable it could be Domingo, as Sing Sing hasn't been widely seen). The fifth slot looks like a battle of the Brits between Hugh Grant and Daniel Craig, although enough Academy members might write down Sebastian Stan purely as a fuck you to Trump.
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Supporting Actress
Saldana and Grande are virtually guaranteed to get in. Rossellini very likely, although the SAG snub was a surprise and her role in the movie really is tiny.
After that, the final two slots are pretty open.
People have been sniffy about Jamie Lee Curtis, but the recent category winner getting a victory lap nomination happens all the time, and The Last Showgirl is surging at exactly the right moment. Margaret Qualley could ride Demi Moore's success, and she fits the narrative of a young rising star the industry likes to reward. Danielle Deadwyler will have a lot of sympathy for her surprise omission for Till last year, but nobody seems to care much about The Piano Teacher. Selena Gomez and Felicity Jones both well positioned to slide in with both their films looking set for a ton of nominations. I'd favour Jones, as she's a former nominee in a less divisive movie.
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Supporting Actor
All signs point to this being a Da'vine Joy Randolph-esque walkover for Kieran Culkin, but Edward Norton and Yuri Borisov are easily on track to be nominated too. Guy Pearce and Jeremy Strong should fill out the category on paper, but the Academy LOVES Denzel Washington, and Clarence Maclin has an outside shot as well. Jonathan Bailey's SAG nomination was the head scratcher of the season, and highly unlikely to go further.
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