Awards Season 24-25

I really do think Demi gets the Oscar nomination but probably not the win. I think what's counting against Cynthia is that she'll probably win it next year instead.

So I wonder if that is actually going to open the door to Fernanda Torres after this surprise win yesterday, in what is quite an open field.
 
Screen Actor's Guild nominations

Motion Picture Cast

Anora
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Wicked


Male Actor in a Leading Role — Motion Picture

Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Daniel Craig, Queer
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

Female Actor in a Leading Role — Motion Picture

Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance

Male Actor in a Supporting Role — Motion Picture

Jonathan Bailey, Wicked
Yura Borisov, Anora
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

Female Actor in a Supporting Role — Motion Picture

Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez
 
Some unexpected choices again. The Oscars are going to be interesting this year.

Jean-Baptiste missing out is a shame (still haven’t seen the film but I love her) but happy to see them ignore Jesse Eisenberg
 
BAFTA nominations announced - no real surprises other than Jamie Lee Curtis sneaking in to Supporting for The Last Showgirl.

Predictions:

Film - Conclave
Actor - Ralph Fiennes
Actress - Marianne Jean-Baptiste
Supporting Actor - Guy Pearce
Supporting Actress - Isabella Rossellini to cause the upset of the night (& possibly carry this momentum into the Oscars)
 
A complete Luca Guadagnino snub! The less said about Queer the better but Challengers should be picking up noms for cinematography and score at least.
 
I've done a nerd and pulled together a quick summary of how the acting nominations have shaped up in the four major precursor ceremonies (BAFTA, Critic's Choice, Golden Globes & SAG)

Best Actress
Probably the most chaotic category this year, but with a 4/4 sweep it seems likely that Mikey Madison, Demi Moore, Karla Sofia Gascon and Cynthia Erivo will all get in. The final slot is a fight between Angelina Jolie, Marianne Jean-Baptiste and Pamela Anderson(!) with two major nominations each, plus outside bets for Nicole Kidman, Kate Winslet, Tilda Swinton, Amy Adams, Fernanda Torres or Zendaya.

My bet would be one of Baptiste, Torres or Anderson. Actually winning the Globe was a major boost for Torres. Whoever's running The Last Showgirl's campaign is doing absolutely sterling work, and Pamela Anderson's phoenix-like arc is a pretty irresistible narrative. Baptiste has years of industry clout behind her, but the film hasn't been widely seen. Kidman and Jolie's campaigns appear to be on total life support at this stage, but the Oscars can be quite conservative in their voting so one or both may just get in on recognition factor alone.

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Best Actor
A more stable category, with Brody, Chalamet, Domingo and Fiennes all but assured. (If one is slightly vulnerable it could be Domingo, as Sing Sing hasn't been widely seen). The fifth slot looks like a battle of the Brits between Hugh Grant and Daniel Craig, although enough Academy members might write down Sebastian Stan purely as a fuck you to Trump.

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Supporting Actress
Saldana and Grande are virtually guaranteed to get in. Rossellini very likely, although the SAG snub was a surprise and her role in the movie really is tiny.

After that, the final two slots are pretty open.

People have been sniffy about Jamie Lee Curtis, but the recent category winner getting a victory lap nomination happens all the time, and The Last Showgirl is surging at exactly the right moment. Margaret Qualley could ride Demi Moore's success, and she fits the narrative of a young rising star the industry likes to reward. Danielle Deadwyler will have a lot of sympathy for her surprise omission for Till last year, but nobody seems to care much about The Piano Teacher. Selena Gomez and Felicity Jones both well positioned to slide in with both their films looking set for a ton of nominations. I'd favour Jones, as she's a former nominee in a less divisive movie.

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Supporting Actor

All signs point to this being a Da'vine Joy Randolph-esque walkover for Kieran Culkin, but Edward Norton and Yuri Borisov are easily on track to be nominated too. Guy Pearce and Jeremy Strong should fill out the category on paper, but the Academy LOVES Denzel Washington, and Clarence Maclin has an outside shot as well. Jonathan Bailey's SAG nomination was the head scratcher of the season, and highly unlikely to go further.

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Jamie Lee Curtis should be sweeping all the gongs just for her look in the movie alone (and dedicating them all to Glenn Close)

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I've done a nerd and pulled together a quick summary of how the acting nominations have shaped up in the four major precursor ceremonies (BAFTA, Critic's Choice, Golden Globes & SAG)

Best Actress
Probably the most chaotic category this year, but with a 4/4 sweep it seems likely that Mikey Madison, Demi Moore, Karla Sofia Gascon and Cynthia Erivo will all get in. The final slot is a fight between Angelina Jolie, Marianne Jean-Baptiste and Pamela Anderson(!) with two major nominations each, plus outside bets for Nicole Kidman, Kate Winslet, Tilda Swinton, Amy Adams, Fernanda Torres or Zendaya.

My bet would be one of Baptiste, Torres or Anderson. Actually winning the Globe was a major boost for Torres. Whoever's running The Last Showgirl's campaign is doing absolutely sterling work, and Pamela Anderson's phoenix-like arc is a pretty irresistible narrative. Baptiste has years of industry clout behind her, but the film hasn't been widely seen. Kidman and Jolie's campaigns appear to be on total life support at this stage, but the Oscars can be quite conservative in their voting so one or both may just get in on recognition factor alone.

View attachment 32700

Best Actor
A more stable category, with Brody, Chalamet, Domingo and Fiennes all but assured. (If one is slightly vulnerable it could be Domingo, as Sing Sing hasn't been widely seen). The fifth slot looks like a battle of the Brits between Hugh Grant and Daniel Craig, although enough Academy members might write down Sebastian Stan purely as a fuck you to Trump.

View attachment 32702

Supporting Actress
Saldana and Grande are virtually guaranteed to get in. Rossellini very likely, although the SAG snub was a surprise and her role in the movie really is tiny.

After that, the final two slots are pretty open.

People have been sniffy about Jamie Lee Curtis, but the recent category winner getting a victory lap nomination happens all the time, and The Last Showgirl is surging at exactly the right moment. Margaret Qualley could ride Demi Moore's success, and she fits the narrative of a young rising star the industry likes to reward. Danielle Deadwyler will have a lot of sympathy for her surprise omission for Till last year, but nobody seems to care much about The Piano Teacher. Selena Gomez and Felicity Jones both well positioned to slide in with both their films looking set for a ton of nominations. I'd favour Jones, as she's a former nominee in a less divisive movie.

View attachment 32707

Supporting Actor

All signs point to this being a Da'vine Joy Randolph-esque walkover for Kieran Culkin, but Edward Norton and Yuri Borisov are easily on track to be nominated too. Guy Pearce and Jeremy Strong should fill out the category on paper, but the Academy LOVES Denzel Washington, and Clarence Maclin has an outside shot as well. Jonathan Bailey's SAG nomination was the head scratcher of the season, and highly unlikely to go further.

View attachment 32708
Homer Simpson Nerd GIF
 
Best actress field is SO crowded this year isn't it? It was looking DEAD back in September and now all these unusual movies, comeback stories and buzz performances have all come along at once...
 
SAG must be run by the gay mafia, based on their outlier nominations for Daniel Craig and Jonathan Bailey.

BAFTA tends to be the more conservative, safe end of nominations and I imagine the Oscars will land somewhere in the middle.
 
Adrien Brody’s Oscar campaign in SHAMBLES after it came out the film used AI to adjust his voice.
 
"For a sequence showing a retrospective of his work, Becker says architecture consultant Griffin Frazen used Midjourney “to create three Brutalist buildings quite quickly” by using references to key figures in the movement along with other architectural terms. “Now I will have these digital prints redrawn by an illustrator to create mythical buildings.”"
"Brody and Jones were fully onboard with the process guided by Respeecher which started with recording their voices to drive the AI Hungarian delivery. Jancsó also fed his voice into the AI model to finesse the tricky dialect."

hate AI but it doesn't sound like that outrageous? I'm sure AI will be commonly used in this way (or worse, to replace human illustrators/talent altogether) going forward anyway.
 
Is it saying they used it as an accent guide? If so why couldn’t they just hire a Hungarian?
 
Just seems a waste of time when 99% of the audience isn’t going to clock that his Hungarian accent isn’t perfect! Especially when in the same breath they’re saying they couldn’t afford to have illustrators make the drawings.
 
Why do we not have Academy Award Nominee Ariana Grande in the Moopy banner yet
In fact we need Wicked + Traitors in the banner
STAT (please)
 
Notable omissions:

Marianne Jean-Baptiste - Hard Truths
Margaret Qualley - The Substance
Nicole Kidman - Babygirl
Angelina Jolie - Maria (THANK GOD! :disco: )
Pamela Anderson & Jamie Lee Curtis - The Last Showgirl
Daniel Craig - Queer
Selena Gomez - Emilia Perez
Clarence Maklin - Sing Sing
Denzel Washington - Gladiator II
 

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